Our Group H preview brings you the latest odds and top betting tips for this fascinating group at the 2018 World Cup.
Group H is arguably one of the easiest groups at the Russia World Cup. Japan are the big outsiders but even they will fancy their chances against Poland, Senegal and Colombia. Two will progress to the last 16 and two will go home. Read on for our thoughts on the final group at this summer’s World Cup.
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Group H World Cup Betting Tip
Poland to win the Group – 9/5 with Coral
Preview, Analysis and Odds
Colombia are the most fancied side in Group H when it comes to the odds. However, the fact that they are ranked just a 40/1 shot (Unibet) to go all the way demonstrates what a weak quartet this is. Poland come next at 66/1 with BetVictor so it is clear that the bookies aren’t anticipating that any of these four will be sticking around in Russia for too long.
That said, of course, two will make the last 16 at the very least and Colombia are ranked a 6/4 shot (Paddy Power) to top Group H. They are as short as 11/10 with some firms though, whilst Poland are available at 9/5 with Coral. If you fancy a real upset, how about Senegal at 6/1 with Betfred or Japan at big odds of 17/2 with Betfair?
Colombia, Poland and Senegal are priced at 40/85, 8/13 and 7/4 respectively to qualify and all have some top class players. Colombia, quarter finalists at the last World Cup, have James Rodriguez, Juan Quadrado and Radamel Falcao. Poland can boast Robert Lewandowski and Napoli duo Arkadiusz Milik and 23 year old Piotr Zieliński. Senegal, unfancied though they are to qualify, have Liverpool’s Sadio Mane, brilliant Napoli defender Kalidou Koulibaly, Everton’s Idrissa Gueye and a host of other players who ply their trade in the Premier League and other top European leagues.
The odds rightly reflect that on paper Colombia probably do have the best players. However, we fancy that the value here lies with Poland. They topped Group E of UEFA qualifying to book their spot at the World Cup. In contrast Colombia were fourth in South American qualifying and are ranked six places lower than Poland (10th v 16th) by FIFA.
Ultimately we feel it is Poland’s talisman Lewandowski who will make the difference. We feel he is a more consistent performer than Rodriguez and his goals should just be enough to see Poland top Group H at nice odds of 9/5 with Coral.
Key Fixtures in Group H
Much as Japan will give their all in Russia, the reality is that they are a little short on class and we can’t see them avoiding the wooden spoon (they are 11/8 to finish bottom with BetVictor and that looks generous). What that means is that it is the games between the other three sides that should prove most crucial.
- 19th June – Poland v Senegal
- 24th June – Poland v Colombia
- 28th June – Senegal v Colombia
If the odds are to be believed, it is the clash between Poland and Colombia that may well decide the group. That takes place in Kazan and Colombia, as you would expect, are slight favourites. The South Americans are priced at odds of 19/11 at the time of writing, with Poland 57/29. To make that easier to understand, in decimal odds Colombia are 2.72, with the European side 2.97.
It is almost certain to be a close game but on balance, as detailed above, we think the outsiders offer a little more value. They are priced at odds of 39/29 to beat Senegal in the game prior and if they do that a draw may well be enough against Colombia. Naturally, at this early stage there are countless “ifs and buts” but we just fancy Lewandowski has the class to guide his side to the top of the pile in Group H.